Wednesday, May 30, 2018

5 Contenders For Overstock.com's E-Commerce Business


Overstock lacks the funds, moat and size to compete in the e-commerce space against giants such as Amazon.
I see five potential acquirers of the e-commerce unit. Kohl´s could be an acquirer of this business at $34/sh. But Amazon is a wildcard.
At current prices, investors are obtaining Medici Ventures for free. Medici owns stakes in 13 very interesting and promising blockchain startups.
In the next article, we will attempt to value Medici Ventures.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Amira, Please Don't Ghost Us - Let's Talk


Good operational results with double-digit revenue growth of 12% and flat gross margin of 12%.
Working capital still consuming all the cash, I believe current financing strategy is not sustainable.
Share exchange for the remaining stake in Amira India seems beneficial for ANFI shareholders.
Mixed messages through CEO actions, on one side he guarantees the 239MM USD debt, on the other he eliminates the compensation committee.
The lack of communication with the market makes ANFI an even riskier and more volatile investment but with a very attractive risk/reward profile (1:4-5) with a target price of $11.00/share.


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Tuesday, April 3, 2018


Amira Nature Foods is trading at 0.5 book value while ROIC is at 10.7% with a WACC of 7.5%.
Stock over punished due to size, domicile, dark IR, small free float and scarcity of rice-company comparable.
Limited downside using modified net-net of 39% to $2.50 per share.
The controlling shareholder/CEO is aligned to minority shareholders.
I recommend buying ANFI with a target price of $11, offering 168% upside.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Daqo New Energy: The Lowest-Cost Producers Will Survive


Government, financial institutions and banks have boosted the industry and demand
Falling costs throughout the supply chain are finally making solar energy feasible on a wide scale and I think DAQO is positioned to consolidate as the lowest-cost producer
DAQO believes silicon-based cells will remain the most widely used solar photovoltaic cells in the near future. If you agree, BUY DAQO
If you believe solar energy will be wildly adopted, BUY DAQO
I recommend buying DQ for a target price of $60.00 USD/share, offering a 130% upside from current levels

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Thursday, June 1, 2017

Sypris Solutions: The Vehicle To Play The Trump Card


Sypris Solutions is in the three industries that will benefit from Trump's agenda: defense, O&G and trucks.
Management is fulfilling its cost reduction promises and increasing revenues.
The stock is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 3.1x and P/B of 1.2x, compared to the industry average of 12.6x-13.0x and 3.1x-4.0x respectively.
If you believe Trump will remain president and will be able to push his agenda, Sypris would be a high beta way to bet on that.
Based on a conservative DCF, I recommend buying the stock with a target price of $2.50/share.

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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

NYX: 2017 May Be The Year Of The Catalyst


4Q16 results positive with revenue growth and margin improvements as expected.
Impairments of 94m surprisingly high but due to management decisions of migrating customers to a better platform.
Listing on the TSX in the second semestre of 2017 may be the catalyst and improved liquidity needed.
A guidance for 1Q17 was provided, while revenues fall within my expectations, EBITDA margins fall short of my expectations.
I recommend buying CVE:NYX with a target price of CAD 4.70/sh and OTC:NXXY with a target price of USD 3.45/sh.

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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

MarketAxess: Credit Trading Needs To Be Disrupted



Great company with double-digit returns and a clear moat.
Opportunity for capital structure enhancement as it has no debt.
Its market share gain from 1% to 16.5% is the best proof of its solution. However, I think the market is not pricing all the potential.
I recommend to buy MKTX at the current price of $180.80 with a 12-24 month target price of $220 offering a 21% upside.

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5 Contenders For Overstock.com's E-Commerce Business

Overstock lacks the funds, moat and size to compete in the e-commerce space against giants such as Amazon. I see five potential acquir...